Colombia to buck regional defence spend trends in 2018

Outlook

Colombia’s rising defence spending demonstrates the perilous, unpredictable nature of its security situation -- peace processes with its two largest guerrilla organisations, though positive, have created new uncertainty and armed crime groups still operate nationwide.

The stark drop in Chile’s spending comes partly due to the declining likelihood of any conflict with Bolivia or Peru, but is mainly a result of the falling value of copper, on which much of the country’s military spending relies.

Mexico’s new Internal Security Law would formalise reliance on the military for policing, facilitating deployments. With the army already carrying out tasks they were not trained for, falling defence spending will put them under more pressure, increasing risks of heavy-handed tactics and human rights abuses.

Impacts

• Fiscal pressures will keep defence spending down across most of the region in 2018.
• Colombia will maintain military pressure on the Urabenos crime group despite the latter’s recent declaration of a unilateral ceasefire.
• The potential spillover effects of political turmoil in Venezuela will present security challenges for both Colombia and Brazil.