Risk and Opportunities, 2018, Part 1

Outlook

Business and investment risk drivers will not diminish in 2018, but be secondary to political and policy-driven risks at the international, regional, national and sub-national levels.

But where there is risk, there is opportunity. Thus in this first of a three-part series we look at the prospects for 2018 and the risks and opportunities it will bring across a wide range of geographies. The two subsequent pieces will consider some elections likely to be pivotal in 2018 and some thematic risks and opportunities.

Impacts

• Domestic politics and the White House’s economic nationalist agenda will drive US foreign policy in an election year.
• Securing ‘70/70’ vote share and turnout for his re-election in March will preoccupy Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• China will take the opportunity to drive ahead President Xi Jinping’s long-term plans to build a China-led global order.
• Reforms to drive EU integration are vulnerable to unexpected shocks from Brexit and far-right-wing parties joining government.
• Successions in the Middle East will increasingly be from father to son, not spread around the ruling family, raising instability risk.