Corruption to dominate election campaigning in 2018

Outlook

Corruption is set to be a key theme in elections across Latin America, exacerbating contention in close fought races and potentially prompting protests.

While in Mexico, a steady drip of allegations looks likely to maintain public anger against the government, crippling its re-election hopes, Brazil’s former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is the current frontrunner in an unpredictable race, but could be barred if his graft conviction is upheld.

Venezuela’s government is likely to ensure re-election, though unrest will ensue, with ongoing instability perpetuating security risks for neighbouring Colombia. Corruption has replaced peace talks as the main concern among Colombians, but with the result still too close to call, the election of a hawkish candidate is a real danger.

Impacts

• New governments regionwide could quickly fall foul of corruption scandals, if they do not address the structural causes of the problem.
• A leftist victory could see Mexico realign its politics vis-a-vis the rest of the region, particularly if NAFTA ties break down completely.
• Migration will be a challenge for Costa Rica’s next government, as harsher US policies drive more northern Central American migrants south.