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East Asian turning points could see dangerous outcomes

Thursday, January 4, 2018

The coming four years could see East Asia become a much more dangerous place

Each of the next four years will see another East Asian state reach a major turning point -- and the outcomes will interact

Source: Oxford Analytica

Outlook

If conflict on the Korean peninsula looks imminent, the chances rise of Japan revising its constitution to empower its military.

If the peninsula stays calm, Chinese President Xi Jinping may feel freer to take risks elsewhere and push for progress towards ‘national unification’, either reaching out or lashing out when Taiwan’s voters go to the polls, depending on which way the political balance in Taipei tips.

A dramatic success or failure would affect Xi’s ability to hold onto power at home post-2022; stability overseas could embolden greater risk-taking at home.

Impacts

  • US policy on North Korea will be the greatest external factor determining regional stability.
  • East Asia could feature significantly in the US presidential election in 2020.
  • Beijing’s policy towards Hong Kong will heavily influence Taiwanese voters’ views on ‘unification’.
  • Japanese de jure remilitarisation would create tension with Seoul precisely when unity is most needed.

See also