Economic risks overshadowed, not extinguished
Environmental risks dominate the World Economic Forum's global survey ahead of its January 23-26 Davos meeting
Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2018, World Bank World Development Indicators
Outlook
For a third year, no economic risk is among the top five risks believed most likely to happen or the top five seen to have the largest impact. For three years after the 2008 global financial crisis, economic risks dominated, but have tailed off since.
In 2018, three of the top five risks seen as most likely are environmental: failure of climate change adaption, extreme weather and natural disasters. The remaining two are technological. Cyberattacks make the top three for the first time and data theft is in the top five for a second year.
Nonetheless, economic risks remain; the top two concerns for doing business are seen as unemployment and fiscal crises. Illicit trade and asset bubbles are the ninth and tenth likeliest perceived risks.
Impacts
- 93% of respondents see political or economic confrontations among major powers worsening in 2018; 80% expect regional conflicts to heighten.
- The top future shock listed is “simultaneous breadbasket failures threaten …global food supply”, a concern the report first flagged in 2008.
- Shocks include bioengineering and cognition-enhancing drugs fuelling inequality, and populism threatening social order in a mature economy.
- Many future shocks are technological: AI ‘weeds’ choking the internet, cyberattacks escalating and catastrophic overfishing by drone ships.