Russian arms sales mix political aims with pragmatism

Outlook

Russian arms exports picked up after 2000 as domestic rearmament programmes generated competitive new designs. Exports support a defence sector which struggles despite large-scale state procurement. Arms sales complement foreign policy aims, and traditional customers such as China, India, Vietnam and Algeria have been joined by states where Russian engagement is more recent: Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Pragmatic calculations about clients’ ability to pay also count. Solvency as well as sanctions concerns mean that longstanding customer Tehran has not received the advanced S-400 air defence system offered to Ankara and Riyadh. Some customers in Africa and elsewhere are happy to buy less sophisticated arms that are adequate for their needs.

Impacts

• The Syrian conflict has showcased several advanced weapon types in action, exciting interest among potential buyers.
• Africa is a small but growing market: Uganda and Nigeria are the largest customers; others tend to buy refurbished equipment.
• Former Soviet states will buy almost entirely from Russia, and Collective Security Treaty Organisation members will get discount prices.
• India is stalling on development of a joint stealth fighter with Russia because of concerns about how advanced the technology is.