Africa’s development may hinge on investment in people

Outlook

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s population is expected to soar from 970 million to 2.2 billion by 2050, with the working-age share rising from 36.5% to 43.7%. Keeping pace with this demographic explosion will require 18 million new jobs each year.

New ILO data shows that job creation is lagging behind. Despite static unemployment rates, population growth will drive unemployment up by 1.1 million this year. Nine million more people -- and 72% of the workforce -- will be in ‘vulnerable employment’ (informal or partial), with 61% in working poverty.

World Bank research suggests sustainable job creation requires investment in infrastructure and education. However, despite GDP growth, adjusted net savings across SSA are in decline, leaving many countries without the resources to invest in their growing populations.

Impacts

• Countries such as Angola, Burundi, Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Nigeria, with high population growth but low savings, may fare worst.
• High levels of youth not in employment, education or training, as in Botswana, Gambia, Niger or South Africa, may lead to skills shortages.
• 53% of SSA employment is in agriculture, 95% of which is rain-fed, leaving many SSA labour markets highly vulnerable to climate change.
• Economic discontent may drive new waves of migration; 32% of Africans now say they would move abroad to find work, up from 30% in 2009.