Italy’s election will focus on immigration and economy
Twitter analysis suggests that domestic issues are key concerns, whereas the EU is less salient
Source: European Commission, IOM, Oxford Analytica
Outlook
Immigration, the economy and social issues such as poverty will be key issues in the March 4 general elections. Although the Italian economy has seen modest growth for the past three years, unemployment remains high at 10.8% (December 2017). In 2016 (the last year for which data is available) almost one-third of the population was at risk of poverty.
This is fuelling support for populist parties such as the League and the Five Star Movement. Their expected success means that neither of the two mainstream coalitions is likely to win a majority, diminishing the prospects of a stable government.
Impacts
- A grand coalition between Forza Italia and the Democratic Party would be unstable; early elections would be likely.
- The fiscally expansionist policies of all major parties would increase Italy’s debt burden and could lead to confrontation with Brussels.
- If the government is weak, it will not be able to push for greater euro-area solidarity.
- This could tip the scales of euro-area reform towards the German government’s preference, greater national self-responsibility.