Crop eradication will not root out drug crime

Outlook

The fragile security dynamics surrounding Colombia’s peace processes require Bogota to take a softly-softly approach towards coca reduction that risks setting it at odds with Washington. Threats by US President Donald Trump to slash aid to Colombia if it does not curb production could have grave consequences for Colombian peacebuilding, particularly if a presidential candidate sympathetic to Trump’s stance is elected in May.

The US troop drawdown in Afghanistan has hampered already struggling poppy eradication efforts, amid a US opioid crisis. Although more than 90% of the world’s heroin comes from Afghanistan, Mexican heroin now dominates the US market. That will play to Trump’s ‘border wall’ rhetoric but with more US citizens dying from painkiller overdoses than heroin and cocaine combined, domestic health policies rather than security measures will be needed to tackle that issue.

Impacts

• Low prices of illicit drugs in states neighbouring producers will drive rapidly growing addiction problems in those countries.
• Mexican cartels will gradually produce more coca domestically, though Mexico is unlikely to ever rival Andean production levels.
• The popularity of synthetic drugs that can be made anywhere will make crop eradication less relevant and domestic crime policies more so.