Mexico tourism success disregards rising violence

Outlook

Tourists are rarely targeted by armed groups but as insecurity increases, more visitors are likely to become caught up in violence, generating bad publicity and encouraging foreign governments to strengthen travel warnings to citizens.

President Enrique Pena Nieto’s government shows no sign of bringing violence under control; increased militarisation of policing has proven ineffective and with less than a year left in office, fresh security initiatives are unlikely.

Tourism looks set for another healthy year, but should violence start affecting tourists directly, it will begin to weigh on visitor numbers. Until then, the success of the sector will encourage extortion and could see more crime groups formalise their activities, laundering money through hotels, restaurants and other enterprises in the hospitality sector.

Impacts

• Less militaristic security policies under a new government may help calm violence rates but could also strengthen crime groups.
• Proposals for localised marijuana legalisation in tourist hubs would free police resources but do little to prevent violence.
• Increased cartel interests in the hospitality sector would make tourism-based businesses more vulnerable to attacks by rival groups.