Trump’s Iran choice will play into Middle East crises
In a framework of heightened confrontation with Iran, national-level controversies across the region could be magnified
Source: Oxford Analytica
Outlook
US President Donald Trump will today announce his decision on whether to renew sanctions waivers under the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement; failure to do so amounts to US withdrawal. This would increase polarisation, exacerbating multiple regional tensions on the eve of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
Iran-backed Hezbollah’s gains in Lebanese elections on May 6 give Tehran a more powerful proxy tool and Israel new reasons for concern -- at a time when the risks of military confrontation between the two in neighbouring Syria are rising.
Iraqi polls on May 12 could also empower Iran-backed militias, to Washington’s dismay. In both cases, government formation processes may be fraught.
Impacts
- Trump’s withdrawal from the deal would push Saudi Arabia and allies to confront Iran -- though efforts to bring in Qatar will likely fail.
- Tehran could exploit rising Palestinian anger around the May 14 US embassy move to Jerusalem and May 15 march on Israel’s Gaza border.
- Open military confrontation between Israel and Iran (with Hezbollah) in Syria or Lebanon would affect Russian and Turkish interests.
See also
- Israel and Iran will play a zero-sum game in Syria - May 10, 2018
- Partners will struggle to save the Iran nuclear deal - May 9, 2018
- Iranian and Israeli aims will clash again in Syria - Feb 12, 2018
- More graphic analysis