Colombian election is Duque's to lose

Outlook

The narrow failure of third-placed centrist Sergio Fajardo to catch Petro will be a relief for Duque, who has more chance of attracting voters from Fajardo’s support base than he would have had of winning over Petro supporters, most of whom would have backed Fajardo to keep Duque out.

Duque can expect to take most of German Vargas Lleras’s support and needs only around a third of the failed candidates’ overall vote share to win.

The prospect of a Duque win may encourage more of those sympathetic to Petro to vote but he faces a struggle, particularly given the dire political situation in Venezuela, which the right will use against him, redoubling efforts to portray him as a ‘new Chavez.’

Impacts

• Duque would bring hardline security policies and end any hope of peace with the National Liberation Army (ELN).
• A Duque win would increase the political influence of former President Alvaro Uribe and could see moves to allow him to run again in future.
• Vargas’s poor showing will weaken any future claims of fraud by Petro, who was adamant that the government was seeking to boost his vote.
• A Petro victory could sour US-Colombia relations, with disagreements over forced coca eradication sure to cause friction.