Clashing priorities point to compromise on North Korea

Outlook

How desirable or acceptable each possible outcome is determines a country’s hierarchy of priorities. The greater the convergence between countries and the further towards one extreme, the more likely a given outcome.

The best-case realistic near-term scenario is a moratorium on North Korea’s further nuclear weapons development in return for tacit acceptance as a nuclear state.

The worst-case near-term scenario is a US strike against North Korea. Despite the current rapprochement, this is not out of the question; if negotiations break down or US President Donald Trump feels their outcome is inadequate, he may yet decide that peace has been tried and failed.

Impacts

• Denuclearisation is the top priority only for Washington -- and even Washington could well settle for less.
• Denuclearisation is probably off limits for Pyongyang, though it may make far-future promises it does not plan to honour.
• Beijing and Seoul will work hard to make sure any US-North Korea settlement takes their interests into account.
• The US troops in South Korea are Pyongyang’s greatest grievance; their withdrawal is Seoul’s greatest fear (besides war).