Ethiopia’s local conflicts will pose governance risks

Outlook

A border dispute between West Guji (Oromia) and Gedeo (Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s Region) has displaced over 800,000 people since April. In nearby Hawassa, protests in mid-June among ethnic Sidama demanding their own federal state turned violent, leaving at least ten dead. Although violence along the Oromia-Somali border has subsided from dramatic highs in late 2017, clashes continue and approximately 1.1 million people remain displaced.

The causes and consequences of these flashpoints vary, but they all in different ways challenge prevailing governance structures. Without sustained conflict resolution efforts that channel local grievances into positive change, there is a risk that these conflicts could fester into something more dangerous.

Impacts

• The perceived success of protests in securing national change may encourage other interest groups to demand political change.
• Tensions between the ethno-regional components and affiliates of the ruling party could project local unrest onto the national stage.
• Aid agencies warn around 640,000 people may be displaced by flooding over the June-August rainy season, adding to humanitarian strains.
• Improved rains may ease food security in some areas, but the situation will remain precarious after four successive years of drought.