Africa’s Belt and Road will follow beaten path

Outlook

At this week’s Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), China pledged to increase foreign aid and investment in Africa, and to build African capacities through assistance targeting industry, infrastructure, trade, environmental development, capacity building, health, knowledge transfer and security.

Beijing’s rhetoric appears aimed at addressing African aspirations to contain debt, kickstart industrialisation and boost skills development, and its commitments will be largely welcomed in Africa, where few other partners offer this level or type of support. Nevertheless, the China-Africa partnership remains driven by mutual self-interest and patterns of cooperation are unlikely to shift dramatically.

Impacts

• Infrastructure will remain a key focus, as a prerequisite for industrialisation and trade, and a major revenue source for Chinese companies.
• China may also increase support for manufacturing to offset rising domestic production costs, boost sales and aid economic restructuring.
• African states may secure some debt relief, but this will likely remain largely limited to interest-free loans maturing this year.
• Africa’s largest and most resource-rich economies will likely remain China’s dominant focus.