“Perfect storm” threatens Congo Ebola response

Outlook

Rising infections, chronic insecurity and community resistance have prompted the World Health Organisation to warn of a “perfect storm” threatening containment of Congo’s Ebola outbreak, and to raise its crisis risk assessment from ‘high’ to ‘very high’.

Beni Territory, the outbreak’s main epicentre, has long been a conflict hotspot. The army is conducting a major offensive against the Allied Democratic Forces, and violence has spiked following a significant attack on Beni town on September 22.

Meanwhile, fear of infection, distrust of treatment and anger over safe burial practices are driving community resistance to containment. Health workers have been attacked; and infected persons and their contacts have fled to evade treatment.

Impacts

• Further attacks on health workers could prompt elevated security risk assessments, constraining field activities.
• New administrative regulations mandating compliance with containment measures may stiffen community resistance.
• Insecurity and community resistance will combine to complicate contact tracing, raising the risk of a further spread of the virus.
• Nearby states will intensify surveillance and could consider travel restrictions; Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda are most at risk.