US military can slow but not stem Somali jihadist tide

Outlook

The US military on October 12 claimed to have killed around 60 al-Shabaab militants in an airstrike, in what was described as a major blow to the al-Qaida-linked jihadist group.

US airstrikes and joint operations with Somali forces have accelerated significantly under President Donald Trump. However, while these actions may have disrupted al-Shabaab’s operations, they have not prevented the continued upwards trajectory in both the frequency and impact of jihadist activity, especially around the capital Mogadishu.

Nevertheless, amid reports that the United States is considering streamlining its military presence in Africa, any drawdown of US operational capacity would remove one of the few serious impediments to al-Shabaab’s freedom of manoeuvre.

Impacts

• Somalia’s fractured national army would be fundamentally unable to sustain serious counterinsurgency operations without external support.
• Persistent infighting between Somali federal and regional authorities will critically undermine security sector reform plans.
• The operational effectiveness of US-trained ‘Danab’ special forces troops may lead to an overreliance on their capacities.
• Civilian casualties in airstrikes will deepen anti-US sentiment among Somalis and serve as a jihadist recruiting tool.