Russian offer will ease Turkmen gas export squeeze
Turkmenistan has vast gas reserves but only one customer, China
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018; Eurasia Review; OilPrice.com; local media
Outlook
Russia’s Gazprom says it will resume gas purchases from Turkmenistan in 2019, although the planned volume is unclear. Disputes with Russia and also Iran have shut down gas exports to those countries, leaving Turkmenistan over-dependent on sales to China via a 1,800-kilometre pipeline completed in 2010.
An August 2018 agreement among Caspian littoral states allows Turkmenistan to lay an undersea pipeline to take gas to Azerbaijan and onwards to Europe, but Russia and Iran may obstruct this on environmental grounds. Another export hope is the TAPI pipeline through Afghanistan to Pakistan and India. Construction has started, but continued war in Afghanistan makes completion and operation seem unlikely.
Impacts
- Russia’s offer to buy Turkmen gas may be intended to discourage Trans-Caspian pipeline plans.
- Iran is offering gas swaps to get Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan and Pakistan, again to undercut the Trans-Caspian and TAPI options.
- For now, Turkmen gas exports to Iran are blocked by international arbitration over a dispute about past debts.
- China has other import options: the Power of Siberia pipeline starting in 2019 and the Altay pipeline now under discussion.
See also
- Gas revenue boost will not resolve Turkmen problems - Jul 1, 2021
- Turkmen leader seeks investors to salvage economy - Jan 10, 2020
- Turkmenistan short of gas field and export funding - Sep 4, 2019
- Russia-Turkmenistan gas contract proves modest - Jul 4, 2019
- Turkmenistan returns to Russia as gas revenue source - Apr 16, 2019
- Prospects for Central Asia in 2019 - Nov 27, 2018
- Russia wins most from Caspian deal despite concessions - Nov 5, 2018
- Turkmen economy shows increasing signs of strain - Dec 29, 2017
- More graphic analysis