Beijing and Washington have room for compromises
Partial compromises in some areas could de-escalate the current China-US confrontation in the short term
Source: Oxford Analytica
Outlook
Active efforts by one country to press its interests at the expense of the other can be relaxed for the sake of stabilising bilateral relations. However, many points of tension arise from irreconcilable differences that show little prospect of ever being truly resolved.
Many have their origins in China’s drive for economic development, with the United States on the defensive trying to preserve its advantage. Others arise from the perceived threat to US national security that China poses, blurring the boundary between economic and security concerns to produce particularly intractable positions.
Impacts
- China’s approach will likely be to give Trump things he can most easily portray as successes but which are not priorities for China.
- China will not make concessions on things it does not admit publicly to doing, fearing indiscretion on Trump’s part.
- Taiwan is a highly sensitive and fundamentally non-negotiable issue, but there is much scope for flexibility in how Beijing handles it.