Jair Bolsonaro will face a political jigsaw puzzle

Outlook

Although President-elect Jair Bolsonaro was elected by a 10-point margin in the October 28 runoff, the broader panorama is less clear, with 30 parties in Congress and the 27 governorships divided among twelve different parties and coalitions from across the ideological spectrum.

Lacking executive experience to date, and having promised to abandon the traditional ‘horse-trading’ involved in offering cabinet posts in exchange for support, it is far from clear that Bolsonaro can construct consensus for an often controversial agenda.

This may prove less difficult while his popularity holds, but if his approval ratings should fall, the incentives for other parties and putative future candidates to back him will dwindle.

Impacts

• The difficulty of building support coalitions in a fractious environment will complicate progress on unpopular reforms such as pensions.
• Frustration with political obstacles could raise concerns that Bolsonaro will adopt a more authoritarian approach.
• Many governors and legislators will nurture future presidential aspirations now that the traditional parties’ stranglehold seems broken.