Bangladesh faces reputational risk over Rohingya

Outlook

A plan agreed late last year by Naypyidaw and Dhaka to repatriate Rohingya to Rakhine State was again put on hold this month after refugee protests.

The UN Refugee Agency says conditions in Rakhine are not conducive to a return. A UN Human Rights Council report this August accused Myanmar’s military of “genocidal intent” towards Rohingya Muslims, of whom over 700,000 have crossed into Bangladesh to flee violence since August 2017.

Bangladesh says it will not forcefully return refugees, but it will be under increasing global scrutiny over how it handles the crisis on its side of the border.

Impacts

• Bangladesh will face pressure to relocate refugees to less densely packed areas, pending repatriation to Myanmar.
• Refugees will continue to demand that Bangladesh stop sharing their personal information with Myanmar.
• Any sign of Bangladesh moving refugees to Bhasan Char would prompt condemnation from human rights groups.
• India will step up efforts to deport its Rohingya, drawing international criticism.
• Rohingya in South and South-east Asia could be at risk of recruitment by Islamist militant groups.