Mexico's AMLO may be key to resolving caravan crisis

Outlook

With 10,000 asylum seekers gathered in Tijuana and more on the way, the caravan crisis looks likely to be the first to face President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) when he takes office on December 1.

His rhetoric so far suggests a drastic divergence in strategy from those of former presidents, involving efforts to integrate newcomers into Mexican society before they reach the northern border, in exchange for US funding and investment.

With just 0.07 refugees per 1,000 inhabitants, Mexico should be able to take more with relative ease. However, a concrete strategy for doing so would take time to develop and require negotiations with Washington, which, given the hostility of US President Donald Trump, would be no easy task.

Impacts

• With large, visible caravans providing a safer and cheaper method of travelling north than the use of traffickers, many more will form.
• The growing frustrations of asylum seekers at the border increase the risk of violent clashes with Tijuana locals and security forces.
• Tensions over the immediate challenge of asylum seekers already at the US border may scupper bilateral cooperation on longer-term solutions.
• Poorly planned integration efforts could stoke xenophobia, foster exploitation and even trigger social unrest in some parts of Mexico.