More Senate seats likely to change hands in 2020

Outlook

The November 6, 2018 midterm elections gave Democrats control of the House of Representatives (and 234 of its seats) and Republicans 53 Senate seats, a net gain of two. The battle for the White House and Congress in 2020 is now beginning.

President Donald Trump will seek re-election and all 435 House seats will be elected: Democrats will want to build on their 2018 gains. Both parties face a more wide-open set of Senate races than this year: Republicans will defend 22 Senate seats; the Democrats twelve. Both stand to make greater gains, or losses; 2019-20 performance will be key.

Impacts

• In 2019-21, the Republican-led Senate will confirm more conservative judges and new Trump cabinet picks.
• The Democratic-controlled House will scrutinise the Trump administration, initiating myriad investigations.
• Differing policy priorities will likely see few major laws passed by 2021, but the parties will make deals, trying to win new voters.
• Republican Senate candidates running in states where Democrats made 2018 gains could face tougher races in 2020.
• If Democrats win Congress in 2020 and Trump wins re-election, he will find his domestic and maybe foreign policy freedom curtailed.