Washington will sustain military focus on Africa

Outlook

After much speculation that last January’s US National Security Strategy, with its focus on great power competition, would presage a major downsizing of US military presence in Africa, the Pentagon announced in November that personnel cuts would be just 10% over three years.

Some missions are expected to remain largely untouched, while others -- notably in West Africa where the United States has stronger counterterrorism partners -- will see a gradual shift away from tactical assistance to advise and assist missions, liaison and intelligence sharing.

With no specific locations or missions billed for closure, the relatively minor cuts can likely be comfortably accommodated through such adjustments in posture or tactical realignments within specific missions.

Impacts

• US military activities in Africa will remain overwhelmingly focused on counterterrorism.
• Russia and China’s slowly expanding military footprint in Africa could keep the United States engaged outside the counterterrorism sphere.
• Use of unmanned aerial vehicles may expand but cost implications will limit this expansion for all but core objectives.
• A spate of fatalities in African missions in 2017 will likely hasten a shift towards reducing the exposure of US military personnel.