Risks and opportunities 2019 - America First

Outlook

In the second half of his first term, President Donald Trump will push ‘America First’ at home and abroad with more self-belief and cohesion. He will still tweet unpredictably, revel in high-profile, one-to-one diplomacy and be disinterested in allies’ anxieties, but clear -- if not necessarily consistent -- policy objectives will emerge from his administration.

The high-profile and high-stakes struggle over trade, intellectual property and foreign investment will remain a proxy for the fight with China for hegemonic power. His administration will bolster its burgeoning alliance with Israel and Saudi Arabia as key to achieving its goal of regime collapse in Iran.

Impacts

• Trump will continue to pursue the old Republican standby of ‘peace through strength’; so far, he has shown more strength than peace.
• Relations with Russia will remain poor, and with Europe tetchy.
• US allies will remain allies for only as long as they are supportive or useful to US national interests as perceived by the administration.
• Failure to deliver jobs, healthcare coverage, economic growth and high stock prices will be a domestic vulnerability in the run-up to 2020.