Huawei’s fate is inseparable from Europe’s geostrategy

Outlook

Few countries have banned Huawei from their 5G telecoms network: the United States, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. Many more fear the cybersecurity risks of contracting a firm with opaque links to Beijing; these concerns weigh on policymakers in Denmark, Germany, Italy, Norway, Poland and the United Kingdom.

Beyond North America, Europe will lead 5G rollouts, which are crucial to the spread of connected devices, especially IoT devices and automated vehicles. Securing these devices from malicious state and non-state cyberactors is a priority for Europe -- but so is keeping China, a critical trade and investment ally, on side.

Impacts

• It is not clear how a Germany-China ‘no-spy deal’ could be forged or enforced to alleviate cybersecurity risks.
• Retaliatory actions by China against countries opposing Huawei will reinforce suspicions over links between the state and the firm.
• A second term for US President Donald Trump, further straining transatlantic ties, would make Europeans more averse to alienating China.
• Many parts of Asia, Africa and the Middle East will transition to 4G by 2025, but will note Huawei’s cybersecurity record.
• A particular concern will be the poor quality control of Huawei’s supply chain.