Thai electoral system will give small parties leverage

Outlook

The long-awaited general election will see voting for a re-established House of Representatives based on mixed-member proportional representation. A party will require the support of just over half the House and Senate together to secure the prime ministership for its candidate.

With the NCPO hand-picking the Senate, the pro-junta Phalang Pracharat has the edge ahead of the poll despite the possibility that it might only be the third-largest party in the House.

The electoral system means smaller parties will likely exert significant leverage post-poll, with a leading party likely to be reliant on a coalition to claim power.

Impacts

• Phalang Pracharat will likely need only 126 House seats to secure the prime ministership for incumbent Prayut Chan-o-cha.
• The recent dissolution of the Thai Raksa Chart Party, a Pheu Thai offshoot, could hurt Pheu Thai’s chances of building a coalition.
• The Democrats are more likely to support Phalang Pracharat than Pheu Thai, though they will aim to distance themselves from both.