Israeli opinion polls show Likud’s improving prospects

Outlook

Knesset seats are allocated from nationwide party lists by proportional representation.

Parties form two main blocs: a right-wing bloc, including Likud, and a centre-left bloc, including Blue and White. Two Arab-led groupings are unlikely to enter any government but could block others.

Blue and White took an early polling lead, but has since slipped to now roughly level with Likud. This is due to votes shifting to Labour, rather than joining the rival bloc.

Nonetheless, Netanyahu’s chances have improved, as recent polling more consistently shows his bloc passing the 61-seat mark (in doubt a month ago). That is a consequence of the surprise emergence of libertarian nationalist party Zehut.

Impacts

• Zehut would probably work with Blue and White, but is more closely aligned with Likud.
• Kulanu and Gesher would also be willing to join either main bloc.
• Netanyahu will hope to form a strong enough coalition to pass a bill shielding himself from corruption charges.
• The final result may defy polling, as several parties hover around the 3.25% threshold for representation.