Vulnerability deepens East African food crisis risks

Outlook

After recurrent droughts from 2015-17, improved rains in mid-2018 looked to be easing regional food insecurity. However, new warnings of poor rains are renewing concern as the region’s ‘lean seasons’ approach.

Drought is but one factor underlying regional food insecurity; conflict is the leading driver, while market disruptions can make food unattainable even when available. Vulnerability exacerbates risk: many populations face persistent food gaps even in good years; those reliant on subsistence agriculture or pastoralism are especially vulnerable to sudden shocks.

The African Development Bank warns that drought risk has risen from once every 6-8 years to once every 2-3 years, leaving communities with little time to recover.

Impacts

• In most areas, climate, conflict and economic stresses will work in combination to undermine food security.
• Despite a peace deal, South Sudan faces an ongoing famine risk as livelihoods, markets and humanitarian assistance remain disrupted.
• Despite improved rains in Ethiopia, massive new displacements due to rising ethnic conflict mean needs will remain elevated.
• Rampant inflation and spiralling food prices is deepening food insecurity in Sudan despite improving security and rainfall.