Online disinformation campaigns will proliferate

Outlook

Since the disclosure of Russian meddling in the 2016 US elections, social media disinformation campaigns have proliferated due to their low cost, vast scale and unprecedented speed. Their actual scale almost certainly far exceeds the number of accounts that have been removed.

Much of this activity is likely to remain domestically focused, while Russia and Iran will continue adapting their campaigns to tightening social media content filters. However, as the 2017 French experience shows, their effectiveness is not guaranteed; much depends on the target country’s response.

Pressure on ‘big tech’ to do more is rising, but technical and human filters are as imperfect as regulatory solutions. Notably, smaller platforms and fringe communities are controlled lightly, if at all, despite their role in fuelling political polarisation and disinformation.

Impacts

• Regulation will focus on ‘big tech’ due to their global dominance.
• Governments will trial creative approaches to neutralise online disinformation, including drowning it out with facts.
• Over-regulation of ‘big tech’ would inadvertently erode freedom of expression online.
• Those with more extreme views will dominate social media conversations on mainstream platforms, accentuating online polarisation.