East African rail links may miss their connections

Outlook

A decade ago, East African leaders resolved to build an ambitious trans-regional railway network to reduce transit times and costs for regional trade. Today, only one stretch of track is complete and funding difficulties leave the wider project in question.

Economic viability is a key concern: the Mombasa-Nairobi line made a 100-million-dollar loss in its first year of operation. Viability is also highly dependent on completing connections, but volatile regional politics have seen priorities shift, timelines slip and debt mount.

Such factors likely contributed to Kenya’s recent failure to secure funding for its Naivasha-Kisumu line. Beijing reportedly signalled that viability depended on Uganda completing the onward connection to Kampala, which Uganda has delayed pending progress on Kenya’s line.

Impacts

• More sections could be mothballed or delayed, as investors and states worry that gaps in the network may not be filled any time soon.
• Uganda-Rwanda tensions saw both nations freeze plans to connect their capitals to focus on other routes, but neither can achieve this alone.
• Tanzania’s plans may be undermined by tough geography, constrained finances, competing priorities and a hostile investment environment.
• An existing network of metre-gauge tracks could be upgraded, but interoperability costs with the new standard-gauge lines will be high.