Public mood points to deepening conflict in Hong Kong

Outlook

Hong Kong has in recent weeks been rocked by mass demonstrations that began as protests against a proposed law allowing extradition to mainland China but are likely also expressions of more generalised discontent with local and central government policies.

Protests are one indicator of public opinion towards the city and central government; polls fill out the picture. From a long-term perspective, public opinion has swung both positively and negatively towards Beijing.

However, recent years appear to show people feeling less satisfied and less “Chinese”, suggesting deepening political conflict in the years ahead.

Impacts

• A growing sense of separate identity bodes ill for Beijing’s efforts to encourage Hongkongers to identify with the Communist Party.
• Replacing the unpopular current Hong Kong administration might do something to satisfy public anger.
• Radicalisation of anti-Beijing activists will likely trigger Beijing-friendly constituencies to dig their heels in too.