Southern Cone elections will see change and continuity

Outlook

Bolivia holds presidential elections on October 20, followed by Argentina and Uruguay one week later.

The political and economic turmoil that followed August party primaries in Argentina makes a change of government virtually certain.

In Bolivia and Uruguay, incumbent parties will win a first round but may face trouble if they cannot avoid a run-off in which opposition voters may unite against them.

The results of all three will depend largely on domestic factors and will not represent either the ebbing or the return of a supposed regional ‘pink tide’. Governability may be complicated in all three regardless of the outcome.

Impacts

• The Frente Amplio is likely to lose its congressional majority even if it manages to retain the presidency.
• Morales is popular but may face pushback on a controversial fourth term and on his handling of recent forest fires.
• Macri will be forced to focus on an orderly handover in December.