Insecurity will hamper Ramaphosa’s state overhaul

Outlook

Recent data show an increase in reported murders (their highest level in a decade) and sexual assaults. There are now 58 recorded murders on average daily (36.4 per 100,000 people annually) and an average of 114 reported cases of rape.

Rising public anger at the exceptionally high levels of violence against women prompted President Cyril Ramaphosa last week to convene an emergency joint sitting of parliament and promise an additional 1.1 billion rand (73 million dollars) as part of a new emergency response.

Meanwhile, Ramaphosa on September 16 extended an army deployment to gang-plagued parts of the Western Cape by an additional six months: some 3,974 people were killed in the province in 2018-19, at a rate of 60 per 100,000.

Impacts

• Coupled with recent xenophobic-related violence and onerous visa regulations, insecurity could further hinder the tourism sector.
• Institutional police and National Prosecuting Authority reform will be necessary to lessen crime rates and distrust of the police.
• The Western Cape government’s new evidence-led crime prevention strategy (if successful) could provide a model for national uptake.
• Overcoming historical and societal factors -- including inequality, poverty and substance abuse -- will prove elusive in the short term.