Canadian Liberals’ re-election is not assured

The Liberals could still win a majority, but recent political scandals may have taken their toll

Source: CBC; Parliament of Canada; Canadian Elections Database; Oxford Analytica

Outlook

Canadians go to the polls on October 21 to elect a parliament that will form their federal government for the next five years.

If the Liberals are elected, they will focus on pro-green policies and likely move ahead with reforms to healthcare, among other areas. However, recent political scandals concerning corporate justice and questions around Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and race have contributed to the Liberal Party’s recent slide in opinion polling.

This means Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives stand a chance of unseating Trudeau’s government, unless the Liberals win outright or can forge a coalition or govern as a minority.

Impacts

  • A minority Liberal government could have limited room for legislative manoeuvre compared with a majority government.
  • A coalition Liberal government would have to modify its legislative priorities depending on the partnerships involved.
  • If the Liberals are re-elected, the Conservative-ruled provinces and territories will resist their policies, including on climate and tax.

See also