Russia may carve out shallow niche in Africa

Outlook

As a symbolic show, Russia’s Africa Summit was a great success, with 43 heads of state attending and dozens of memoranda of understanding signed. Even so, Russia’s economic footprint in Africa remains light -- and heavily focused on North Africa.

Ultimately, with its main exports -- hard commodities and agriculture -- mirroring Africa’s, and lacking the finance or technology to fill critical infrastructure or development gaps, Russia has fewer obvious complementarities to offer the continent than its global peers.

Nevertheless, cheap and effective weapons, no-questions-asked military assistance and civilian nuclear technologies fill a space relatively unoccupied by other global competitors, which may be as much about buying political goodwill as developing economic links.

Impacts

• While Russia-Africa trade may never become a vital link, mutually beneficial deals with certain countries are highly attainable.
• Military assistance is a potential growth area, with training even more attractive than arms sales for many African states.
• Political and security pacts that translate into mutual support in fora such as the UN have value on both sides.
• Trade in nuclear technology may appear attractive, but relatively few discussions will develop into viable programmes.