Latin America will see political shifts

Outlook

Massive anti-government protests over corruption, austerity and inequality are shaking Central America, Haiti, Ecuador and Chile and could force some leaders out.

The opposition win in Argentina may avert similar protests, at least for now, but claims of fraud in Bolivia have prompted violent demonstrations demanding an election re-run.

Although this may portend a shift away from the centre-right, it does not represent the return of the ‘pink tide’ or renewed support for Venezuela. However, the departure of Argentina’s Mauricio Macri and the weakness of Chile’s Sebastian Pinera will undermine the Lima Group’s efforts to drive change in Venezuela.

Impacts

• The Uruguayan run-off is likely to see a centre-right government take office, in contrast to elsewhere.
• Bolivian President Evo Morales has held on to power but could see governability slip if protests continue.
• In Ecuador, President Lenin Moreno cannot meet conflicting demands and may be forced out.
• The centre-left surge in Colombia’s local elections in Colombia will increase pressure on President Ivan Duque.