US impeachment battle could run beyond 2021

Outlook

In late November, the House of Representatives Intelligence Committee started compiling its report into its impeachment investigation of President Donald Trump, as the House Judiciary Committee prepared for its round of hearings. Most Democrats support impeaching the president, but the Republican-led Senate, which doubts the basis of the investigation, is very unlikely to vote to remove Trump from office, especially with the 2020 elections fast approaching. This will remain the case unless definite evidence of any "treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanours" surfaces.

If the Democrats keep the House in 2020, the impeachment risk will hang over Trump in 2021-25, forcing him again to rely on Senate Republicans’ support. The Democrats will not initiate impeachment unless they feel they will be successful.

Impacts

• House Democrats will not push to pass impeachment articles without some House Republicans’ support, to avoid partisanship accusations.
• Democrats in swing districts may not support impeaching Trump, to avoid alienating havering Republicans and independents.
• If Trump were ejected, the vice president, currently Mike Pence, would take over, but major initiatives could face delays.