Risks and opportunities 2020: International

Outlook

For manufacturing to lead the global economy into a sharper downturn, through weaker employment and confidence it will have to drag more notably on consumer spending. WTO dispute rulings are no longer binding, and this will not be resolved swiftly. The move from trade liberalisation towards protectionism comes at a cost to trade and investment.

Opportunities also abound. The first commercial spaceflight to the International Space Station and commercial satellite servicing mission will occur soon. Investment in innovation, education and structural reforms could raise productivity and set the stage for higher growth in the 2020s.

Impacts

• The AI health market could grow to 6.6 billion dollars by 2021 from 0.6 billion in 2014; access will rise, and costs will eventually fall.
• Cybercrime will prey on smaller firms, though targeting larger firms offers higher payoffs; attackers may increasingly opt for this route.
• Nations dependent on debt, trade or commodities will struggle to revive growth, as will those facing high political or social instability.
• Public investment will rise in Japan, China and India; a lack of political consensus will limit spending in Germany and the United States.