Risks and opportunities 2020: Latin America

Outlook

The USMCA will strengthen Mexico’s economy (the region’s second-largest), while a National Investment Plan should further help build confidence between the private sector and the government. Growth will nevertheless still lag behind the expectations of the latter.

Argentina will be forced to renegotiate debt in coming months amid continuing recession, and hoped-for oil investments may not be enough to stabilise the economy. Hopes for Brazilian growth and investment may also prove inflated.

Bolivia’s Former President Carlos Mesa looks likely to win next year’s elections, but whoever wins will lack legitimacy from the outset in the eyes of large swathes of the population.

Impacts

• Argentina’s granting of asylum to former Bolivian President Evo Morales will strain bilateral relations.
• Tensions between Brasilia and Buenos Aires may increase as Argentina’s recession hits trade.
• The concessions granted by the Mexican government to secure US support for the USMCA prompt a backlash in certain areas.