Risks and opportunities 2020: Europe
A political malaise looms over Europe where many see a disconnect between governments and the governed
Source: Oxford Analytica
Outlook
The Mitsotakis government seems to be extricating Greece from its prolonged crisis but could be knocked back if it fails to tackle the migrant crisis. In Bosnia, the freeing of political paralysis since the October 2018 elections provides a fresh start but could yet be frustrated by sectarian interests. The Kuciak assassination left may Slovaks profoundly disillusioned with the political class; they could use the February elections to bring about change.
Meanwhile, the outcome of state elections in Emilia Romagna on January 24 will be crucial for the survival of Italy’s ruling coalition. A victory for the right-wing bloc could result in the collapse of the PD-M5S coalition and pave the way for Matteo Salvini’s League Party to lead the next government.
Impacts
- A liberal government in Bratislava could play a positive role at the EU level.
- The EU’s Dublin Regulations will continue to impede governments from sharing the migrant burden with front-line states.
- An EU-UK trade deal is unlikely to be comprehensive and will therefore weaken growth across the euro-area.
See also
- Prospects for a close EU-UK trade deal are not good - Dec 20, 2019
- Potential for protest is growing in Western Europe - Dec 6, 2019
- Migration threatens new Greek government’s popularity - Nov 28, 2019
- More graphic analysis