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Risks and opportunities 2020: North America

Thursday, January 9, 2020

A number of opportunities that face North America this year could equally -- and easily -- become risks

This year will be politically and economically pivotal for North America

Source: Oxford Analytica

Outlook

This will be a critical year for North America. Canada has just emerged from its 2019 federal election, but now with a minority government and opposition parties keen for an eventual electoral rematch against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who lost the popular vote.

The US elections in November will determine whether President Donald Trump continues in office, and which party controls the Senate and House of Representatives. But before that, the parties will lock horns over US-Iran, US-North Korea and US-China policies.

Impacts

  • Primary elections and caucuses to pick the 2020 Democratic presidential candidate start in February.
  • President Trump will try to smooth US-North Korean and US-Iran ties, but this could be difficult before November.
  • The US-China phase-one trade deal being signed this month will temporarily calm trade frictions; phase two talks will be tough.
  • Canada’s government will legislate selectively, picking battles it can win, while seeking to win back western states’ support.

See also