Algerian terror threat is waning despite regional woes

Outlook

The defence ministry this month published its 2019 performance report, which showed a continued decline in numbers of terrorists killed or detained.

Since a 2013 al-Qaida attack on a gas facility, which left 39 civilians dead, the army has beefed up border surveillance, increased patrols and checkpoints, and improved security cooperation with Tunisia. It has also been aided by a major increase in defence spending over the past decade

The evidence suggests this has yielded results. Indeed, there has not been an attack against the civilian population since mid-2017.

That comes despite potential risk factors -- rising instability in western Libya, a Malian jihadist insurgency that is growing increasingly deadly and a year of domestic turmoil and protest.

Impacts

• Progress in combating smuggling and narcotics trafficking is less apparent.
• Terrorist arrests concentrated in Tamanrasset indicate cross-border jihadist activity is tied more to conflict in the Sahel than Libya.
• Algiers’ recent diplomatic activity nonetheless aims to keep spill-over from instability in Libya at a minimum.