COVID-19 rises inexorably in Russia and neighbours

The disease’s spread may have been delayed but sound contagion control policies are needed just as elsewhere

Source: Johns Hopkins University; Yandex.ru live map; RIA Novosti; Moscow Times; RFE/RL

Outlook

Former Soviet states have reported comparatively few COVID-19 cases despite proximity to early hotspots China and Iran. As numbers rise, regional governments are mostly responding with tests and gradual restrictions.

Moscow prided itself on early precautions but that argument will lose strength if cases increase exponentially. In Ukraine, COVID-19 has become political: after installing a less IMF-friendly government, Kyiv is begging the Fund to accelerate and enlarge loan arrangements, while critics say current restrictions are excessive given relatively few cases of infection and the economy’s vulnerability.

Armenia and Georgia took prompt action when COVID-19 spread in Iran, but Turkmenistan claims no cases and has not halted public events.

Impacts

  • Russian crude oil export volumes to China dropped by 36% (28% in value terms) in January, before disarray in OPEC+ drove prices down.
  • Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will suffer to varying extents from the decline in oil and gas demand in China.
  • Border closures will stop hundreds of thousands of migrant workers coming to Russia from Central Asia, Ukraine and Moldova.

See also