Maghreb lockdown rush may reflect low health capacity

Outlook

Maghreb countries have rushed in lockdown measures to combat COVID-19, introducing restrictions comparatively much earlier than those in southern Europe, whence the virus arrived in North Africa.

Morocco and Tunisia have ordered all citizens to stay home, while Algeria has introduced stringent localised restrictions in Blida and the capital.

The swift action may be an acknowledgement of the lesser capacity of these countries’ healthcare systems to deal with the outbreak. The region also has a long history of authoritarian rule, which likely helps in the effective imposition of such curbs.

Impacts

• The decision to move immediately to shut businesses and restrict movement will worsen the economic hit.
• Low thresholds for quarantine imposition may make it difficult to lift restrictions again.
• Actual case numbers are probably higher than official figures, owing to limited testing.
• If the virus spreads widely, it will quickly overwhelm health systems and the outbreak could prove much deadlier than in Europe.