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COVID-19 poses a critical challenge in South America

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

The coronavirus will have widespread social, economic and political impacts with which authorities will struggle

Brazil is the only South American country not to impose stringent national measures

Source: Johns Hopkins; UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC); media reports; Oxford Analytica

Outlook

While COVID-19 in South America was initially a ‘high-income’ disease linked to people travelling from abroad, it has now spread via community transmission to low-income sectors.

Currently ECLAC estimates a (possibly optimistic) Latin American GDP contraction of 1.8% this year, with a 10-point rise in unemployment and poverty jumping from 185 to 220 million. This will expand poverty and debt concerns and reduce resources to combat the crisis.

As the world’s most urbanised region, with over 80% in cities, social distancing is challenging, especially in large shantytown areas.

Impacts

  • Ageing populations (11.1% over 65 in Chile, 11.8% in Argentina and 14.4% in Uruguay) could boost the death toll.
  • Weak public health systems and the onset of winter may exacerbate the severity of the outbreak.
  • The existing Venezuelan crisis and migrant outflows make the country a flashpoint.

See also