Africa may face uncontrollable COVID-19 crisis
In just over a month since the first infection, the COVID-19 virus has spread rapidly across the continent
Source: World Bank; WHO; UNICEF; OCHA; Johns Hopkins; Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; media reports
Outlook
In the early weeks of the COVID-19 crisis, Africa was relatively unaffected. Now, 49 of 54 African states have confirmed cases, with infections spreading rapidly, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Governments have been quick to impose strict containment measures, but factors such as urban overcrowding, poverty, lack of amenities and, in some cases, popular resistance will make enforcement challenging and could limit their effect.
While case numbers are still relatively low, recent research by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine warns that most African countries will have more than 1,000 cases by end-April, and more than 10,000 by mid-May. This may quickly overwhelm the continent’s comparatively under-resourced health systems.
Impacts
- Africa’s youthful demography may lower mortality rates; however, poor nutrition and the prevalence of other diseases could offset this.
- Densely populated urban areas may be hardest hit; in contrast, the virus may spread more slowly among highly dispersed rural populations.
- The economic repercussions will be severe and may even pose a greater long-term mortality risk than the virus itself.
- Most governments have extremely limited capacity to invest in strengthening institutions to mitigate the short or long-term impacts.
See also
- COVID-19 will exacerbate Sahel food crisis - Apr 23, 2020
- UN warns Africa COVID-19 deaths could be in millions - Apr 17, 2020
- COVID-19 could reconfigure African foreign relations - Apr 17, 2020
- COVID-19 complicates global humanitarian aid response - Apr 16, 2020
- Politics and medical realities may collide in Tanzania - Apr 14, 2020
- Uganda faces complex COVID-19 challenges - Apr 8, 2020
- COVID-19 poses a huge challenge to developing nations - Apr 8, 2020
- Kenya’s partial lockdown may not avert economic pain - Apr 7, 2020
- Virus could deeply disrupt government functions - Apr 6, 2020
- Africa faces complex COVID-19 challenges - Mar 17, 2020
- More graphic analysis