Africa may face uncontrollable COVID-19 crisis

Outlook

In the early weeks of the COVID-19 crisis, Africa was relatively unaffected. Now, 49 of 54 African states have confirmed cases, with infections spreading rapidly, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Governments have been quick to impose strict containment measures, but factors such as urban overcrowding, poverty, lack of amenities and, in some cases, popular resistance will make enforcement challenging and could limit their effect.

While case numbers are still relatively low, recent research by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine warns that most African countries will have more than 1,000 cases by end-April, and more than 10,000 by mid-May. This may quickly overwhelm the continent’s comparatively under-resourced health systems.

Impacts

• Africa’s youthful demography may lower mortality rates; however, poor nutrition and the prevalence of other diseases could offset this.
• Densely populated urban areas may be hardest hit; in contrast, the virus may spread more slowly among highly dispersed rural populations.
• The economic repercussions will be severe and may even pose a greater long-term mortality risk than the virus itself.
• Most governments have extremely limited capacity to invest in strengthening institutions to mitigate the short or long-term impacts.