Mozambican northern crises set to escalate

Outlook

A recent spike in Islamist-inspired attacks in Cabo Delgado province, including the temporary occupation of three district capitals, is raising fears that insurgents could try launching attacks on larger commercial centres -- such as provincial capital Pemba.

Maputo says insurgents do not control any territory, but increasingly daring and well-publicised attacks, often claimed by Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP), have seen an estimated 162,000 people directly impacted by insecurity.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) firms are growing more sceptical of Maputo’s capacity to contain insecurity, while displacement and various health crises, including COVID-19 and cholera outbreaks, risk worsening over the short term.

Impacts

• The global economic impacts of COVID-19, coupled with worsening insecurity, could see significant delays to large-scale LNG projects.
• The reported detention of a journalist in Cabo Delgado will raise fears of further declines in media freedoms.
• Provincial and local administration will be hindered as officials flee amid fears of pending attacks.
• A potential lockdown of Cabo Delgado to combat the spread of COVID-19 could prompt public protests.