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COVID-19 impacts will differ across Central America

Thursday, April 30, 2020

Infections, deaths and responses have varied dramatically regionwide, with the richest country by far the worst hit

Central America demonstrates little correlation between wealth and COVID-19's impact so far

Source: Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering ; INFORM Global Risk Index 2020; media reports

Outlook

Differing counting practices may explain some regional disparities, but Panama’s figures are worrying and suggest early lockdown delays have put the country on the back foot.

Swift, tough action in El Salvador may have stemmed contagion but risks impinging on human rights and damaging the state’s reputation. Continued US migrant deportations pose infection risks for El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala, as do overcrowded prisons.

Nicaragua’s aversion to restrictions risks rapid contagion and, ultimately, worsening political unrest. Cautious lockdown relaxation in neighbouring Costa Rica will be monitored regionwide, but the country’s inability to reopen borders will cripple tourism, with major socioeconomic ramifications.

Impacts

  • Tough COVID-19 lockdown rules, as seen in El Salvador, risk exacerbating other problems, including poor mental health and domestic violence.
  • Widespread unemployment will exacerbate poverty, potentially driving increased crime and outward migration as lockdown rules are relaxed.
  • Corruption scandals relating to medical procurement have already hit Guatemala and may arise elsewhere, fostering anti-government feeling.
  • Perceived success or failure in handling COVID-19 will influence voting intentions for Belize’s November elections, which may be postponed.

See also